Books
Predicting the Unpredictable:
The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction
by Susan Hough
Princeton University Press, 2010
272 pages, $24.95
The magnitude 7.0 Haicheng earthquake that hit northern China in 1975 killed 2,000 people. But the death toll was relatively small—the 7.5 Tangshan quake that struck the following year killed 250,000. Chinese officials proclaimed that thousands of lives were saved because they successfully predicted the tremor. A closer analysis reveals that seismologists and officials did anticipate the quake, but whether it was a true prediction, in which they knew exactly where and when the quake would happen, is a trickier question to answer.
In Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction, Susan Hough, a seismologist with the USGS in Pasadena, provides an insider’s look at the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Hough takes the reader from the heyday of the field in the 1970s, when experts claimed accurate predictions were just around the corner, to the present day, when some are skeptical that predictions will ever be possible.
Hough’s highly readable book is an insightful account of the scientific method, uncovering the often messy process behind the pursuit of truth. Science demands rigor, and seismology is no exception, as Hough describes ideas that both survive and fail upon close scrutiny.
Although scientists have made remarkable progress in understanding earthquakes over the last 50 years, predicting earthquakes is still really hard, if not impossible. So when we complain about seismologists’ seemingly general warnings that an earthquake may happen tomorrow or 50 years from now, maybe we should give them a break. —MW
